IMF Raises Global Economic Growth Forecast, Warns of Debt and AI Risks

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 from 3% to 3.1%. At the same time, the organization has highlighted risks associated with AI-related investments, rising public debt and higher energy prices.

According to the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook report, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.4% in 2027. However, the forecast for 2026 remains below the 3.5% growth recorded in 2025.

The report projects that the US economy will grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. Growth in advanced economies is expected to rise to 2.1% this year before slowing to 1.9% next year.

According to the IMF, oil prices are expected to average $96 per barrel this year, while global inflation is projected to reach 4.7%. Inflation is expected to ease to 4.1% in 2027.

Artificial Intelligence Supports Economic Growth

The IMF says rising demand for artificial intelligence is having a positive impact on the global economy, although its benefits are unevenly distributed across countries. The United States and China account for more than three-quarters of net demand for AI-related equipment and computer chips.

The report highlights the growing concentration of global economic growth in a smaller number of countries. It states that 32 countries account for 95% of global growth.

IMF officials note that factors such as an AI-related market correction, rising bond yields and cyber threats could pose additional risks to financial stability.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has also warned that AI is having an increasingly significant impact on the labor market. According to her, approximately 40% of jobs worldwide could be affected by AI.

Debt Burden and Energy Prices Raise Concerns

The IMF considers rising debt levels one of the main risks to the global economy. High borrowing costs limit governments’ financial capacity and weaken their resilience to economic shocks.

According to the report, growth in emerging economies that are more vulnerable to rising energy prices is expected to slow from 4.5% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026. Growth is projected to recover to 4.4% in 2027.

The euro area is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. China’s economic growth is projected to slow from 5% in 2025 to 4.5% this year, while India’s growth is expected to decline from 7.7% in 2025 to 7% in 2026.

Energy shocks and geopolitical risks are also having a more severe impact on the Middle East and Central Asia.

During the IMF and World Bank’s Annual Meetings, finance ministers and central bank governors are discussing global economic prospects, financial stability and strategies to support sustainable economic growth.