ECB Presidency Race Begins: Who Will Succeed Lagarde?

Eurozone countries have until Friday, November 6, to nominate a successor to Christine Lagarde as head of the European Central Bank (ECB). Finance ministers are expected to consider the nominations on November 9. The Eurogroup spokesperson told Euronews.

According to the spokesperson, following Lagarde’s letter to European Council President António Costa, the EU Council has launched the procedure to appoint her successor. Members of the ECB Executive Board are appointed by the European Council, which makes its decision on the basis of a recommendation on the candidate.

Only countries that use the euro vote on this recommendation, so appointments are discussed in advance within the Eurogroup. Eurogroup President and Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis has called on member states to submit their nominations by November 6. The Eurogroup will assess the state of the nominations at its meeting on November 9.

A candidate must win the support of at least 16 of the eurozone’s 21 countries, which must represent at least 65 percent of the bloc’s population. The final decision will be made by EU leaders after the European Parliament and the ECB Governing Council have given their opinions.

Last week, Lagarde announced that she will resign on February 7, 2027, cutting her eight-year term short by about nine months. Speaking to journalists in Frankfurt, she said that leaving would give her the freedom to express her views beyond monetary policy. Lagarde said she cannot remain neutral and stressed that the truth is often distorted.

However, she declined to say whether she would support any candidate in the French presidential election in April 2027.

As Euronews has reported since February, rumors circulating throughout the year link the timing of her resignation to the French elections. An early departure could give French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz a chance to influence who succeeds her before the April vote, at a time when the far right is gaining strong support.

Lagarde described the ECB as “rock solid” and promised that things would continue with perfect continuity. The same day, the central bank held its deposit rate unchanged at 2.5 percent. Lagarde will chair two more rate-setting meetings, in December and February.

Two names stand out in the race. Both were openly endorsed by their governments in September, a few weeks before Lagarde’s announcement.

Pablo Hernández de Cos. He is General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), often called the “central bank of central banks.” He headed the Bank of Spain from 2018 to 2024. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez backed him in a Bloomberg interview on September 23, thereby confirming Spain’s first-ever candidacy for the ECB presidency. Unusually, Spanish opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo also endorsed him in October, ahead of this month’s snap elections.

Klaas Knot. He led the Dutch central bank for 14 years until 2025. A day after Sánchez’s endorsement, Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten told Bloomberg that Knot would be an “excellent choice” for many countries.

Prediction markets also show the race is between these two. As of Tuesday morning, investors on Kalshi gave Hernández de Cos a 34 percent chance and Knot 31 percent. On Polymarket the gap was wider: 41 and 30 percent, respectively. On both platforms, former Banque de France head François Villeroy de Galhau (who resigned in February) was in third place, at 5 and 13 percent. However, only a few thousand dollars have been wagered on each market.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel was also mentioned early in the race, although no German has ever been ECB president.

Isabel Schnabel, the German economist in charge of the ECB’s market operations, moves to the IMF on January 3. Irish chief economist Philip Lane’s term ends at the end of May next year.

With half of the six-member Executive Board scheduled to change hands within five months, capitals are expected to negotiate the three posts as a package. Paris will most likely target the chief economist position rather than a third French presidency. Madrid, meanwhile, wants to regain its seat on the Board after losing the vice-presidency this year.