Trade truce at risk ahead of Trump–Xi meetings

Trump will meet Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen later this month, and again in Miami in December for the G20. Analysts warn that stability in US-China relations could be disrupted.

Attention is set to return to trade negotiations shortly. US President Donald Trump will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in the Chinese city of Shenzhen later this month, and again in Miami in December for the G20 summit.

The truce in the trade war, which spared the global economy a major shock last year, expires in January, and its future is in question.

Beijing may increase pressure for concessions

Craig Singleton, senior fellow at the US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, believes Beijing may conclude that Trump’s domestic political difficulties mean he needs a deal more than China does. That could encourage Chinese negotiators to push harder for tariff cuts and other concessions.

According to Singleton, this approach also carries the risk of a “miscalculation that disrupts the stability Xi is trying to preserve.”

Trump has softened his tone

Trump has repeatedly said in the past that China’s trade with the US is unfair. Shortly after returning to office last year, he imposed triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods to address a trade imbalance that he said was “killing” the US.

Since then, however, his tone has softened considerably. At two large-scale summits held in Beijing and Washington, he praised Xi Jinping’s conduct. Even so, those summits produced few economic wins.

Trump’s friendly relationship with Xi contrasts with the approach of his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, who repeatedly angered Beijing with his comments on human rights and his pledge that the US would defend Taiwan if China attacked. Analysts regard some of Trump’s potential Republican successors, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as taking a tougher line on China.

Impact of the midterm elections

Wu Xinbo, a professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University and an adviser to China’s Foreign Ministry, believes that after the midterm elections Trump may be less inclined to disrupt the stable relationship he has built with China.

The Ukraine and North Korea factor

Beyond trade, as his presidency draws to a close, Trump may seek Beijing’s help to secure other foreign policy wins, such as ending the war between Russia and Ukraine or arranging another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Analysts say Beijing, which maintains deep trade ties with Russia and North Korea, could use this influence to extract concessions from Trump.

Taiwan: the main risk

At the same time, Beijing faces Congress’s intention to raise human rights issues, scrutinize Chinese investments, and deliver a $14 billion arms package that Trump reportedly held back “during negotiations” with Xi.

China claims that Taiwan, a democratically governed island, is part of its territory and demands a halt to arms sales.

“The Chinese will definitely react strongly to this,” said Shen, a former Chinese Foreign Ministry official, calling it the “number one risk” after the midterm elections.